Rugby League World Cup 2026 Round 1 Expert Tips

The 2026 Rugby League World Cup is finally here, with five blockbuster matches set to launch the men's tournament across Australia and Papua New Guinea.

Australia and New Zealand headline the opening round, while Samoa face France, Papua New Guinea host Lebanon, England take on Tonga and Fiji meet the Cook Islands.

Here are my expert tips for all five opening-round matches.

Tip: New Zealand 1–12

The opening match of the tournament could prove to be one of its most important, with the defending champions Australia facing a New Zealand side capable of challenging for the title.

Australia boast plenty of firepower, with Reece Walsh, Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Munster and Mitchell Moses forming a dangerous attacking spine. However, the Kiwis have a formidable forward pack led by James Fisher-Harris and Joseph Tapine, with Jahrome Hughes and Kalyn Ponga providing plenty of attacking creativity.

New Zealand's ability to dominate the middle could be the difference in what should be a tight contest. With both teams possessing enough quality to punish defensive mistakes, a comfortable victory for either side looks unlikely.

I'm tipping the Kiwis to produce an early statement by edging Australia in a close encounter. This one could go either way, it should be a belter to kick off the most anticipated World Cup ever.

Tip: Samoa 13+

Samoa enter the tournament with genuine ambitions of repeating their run to the 2022 World Cup final, and they have the talent to make a strong start against France.

Jarome Luai will lead a dangerous attacking group featuring Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Brian To'o, Stephen Crichton and Deine Mariner leading the outside backs. That combination of speed, power and creativity could cause France significant problems, particularly if Samoa establish dominance through the middle.

France have experienced players of their own, including captain Benjamin Garcia and halfback Théo Fages, but they face a difficult challenge against one of the tournament's strongest squads.

If Samoa find their rhythm early, their attacking weapons could turn this into a one-sided contest.

Tip: Lebanon 1–12

This could be one of the most intriguing matches of the opening round, with Papua New Guinea enjoying home support in Port Moresby against a Lebanon side containing several established NRL players.

The Kumuls will be desperate to start strongly in front of their passionate supporters. Rhyse Martin, Edwin Ipape, Zac Laybutt and Nene Macdonald give Papua New Guinea plenty of experience and attacking potential.

However, Lebanon have a competitive squad of their own. Jacob Kiraz, Jason Saab and Alex Twal are among the players capable of making a difference, while their outside backs offer plenty of speed and finishing ability.

Home advantage makes Papua New Guinea dangerous, but Lebanon have enough individual quality to make this a difficult assignment for the hosts.

I'm backing the Cedars to cause an upset, although I expect the contest to remain close throughout.

Tip: Tonga 1–12

England and Tonga meet in what could be one of the defining matches of the opening round, with both nations harbouring ambitions of reaching the final.

England have named a strong side featuring George Williams, Harry Smith, Herbie Farnworth and Victor Radley. AJ Brimson has been selected at fullback, while the forward pack includes Max King, Morgan Knowles and Kai Pearce-Paul.

Tonga, meanwhile, have a formidable group of forwards led by Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo, Haumole Olakau'atu and Tyson Frizell. Isaiya Katoa and Latu Fainu will be tasked with providing the creativity in the halves.

The battle through the middle could be decisive. Tonga possess the size and power to challenge England's defensive line, while their attacking threats can punish any defensive lapses.

England have enough quality to win, but I'm tipping Tonga to produce a narrow victory in a physically demanding encounter.

Tip: Fiji 13+

Fiji and the Cook Islands round out the opening round with a Pacific Island clash that promises plenty of physicality and attacking flair.

Fiji have several familiar NRL names in their squad, including Apisai Koroisau, Sunia Turuva, Waqa Blake and Jacob Saifiti. Koroisau's experience and creativity at hooker could be particularly important in helping Fiji control the contest.

The Cook Islands also possess some dangerous players, with captain KL Iro, Esan Marsters, Davvy Moale and Mason Teague among those expected to play important roles.

However, Fiji's experience across the park gives them the edge. If they can dominate possession and use their outside backs effectively, they should be capable of creating opportunities throughout the match.

I'm expecting Fiji to finish the opening round with a convincing win.

The opening round offers a mixture of heavyweight clashes, potential upsets and opportunities for the tournament's Pacific nations to make an early statement.

New Zealand beating Australia would immediately establish the Kiwis as genuine title contenders, while Samoa will be expected to start strongly against France. Lebanon are my upset pick against Papua New Guinea, Tonga have the forward power to challenge England, and Fiji should have enough quality to overcome the Cook Islands.

Five games, five predictions and the perfect opportunity to see which nations are ready to make a serious run at the World Cup.

How many of these tips will come through?