RLWC 2026 Round 3 Expert Tips: Team Lists, and Finals Scenarios

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The 2026 Rugby League World Cup group stage reaches its final round this weekend, with several teams still fighting to secure a place in the semi-finals.

Here are my tips, the confirmed team lists, the key changes and every major finals scenario heading into Round 3.

My round 3 tips

ENGLAND v PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Friday, October 30 – WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Tip: England by 13+

England head into their clash with Papua New Guinea knowing a win is essential to keep their semi-final hopes alive. The English have named a reshuffled side, with Jez Litten coming into the starting side at hooker and Morgan Knowles returning at lock.

PNG have also made several changes, with Zac Laybutt moving to fullback, Josh Feledy coming into the centres and Luca Moretti returning to the starting side.

Neither of these sides have been near their best so far. But England has too much strike power for PNG and should pile on the scoreboard pressure to win this one convincingly.

England team list

1. AJ Brimson

2. Dominic Young

3. Hugo Savala

4. Herbie Farnworth

5. Matty Ashton

6. George Williams (c)

7. Harry Smith

8. Max King

9. Jez Litten

10. Luke Thompson

11. Junior Nsemba

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Morgan Knowles

Interchange: Mikey Lewis, Sam Walters, Ethan Havard, Victor Radley, Ben Currie, Jack Welsby.

Reserves: Brad O'Neill, Zach Eckersley, Kallum Watkins.

Papua New Guinea team list

1. Zac Laybutt

2. Robert Derby

3. Josh Feledy

4. Nene Macdonald

5. Dudley Dotoi

6. Gairo Voro

7. Bailey Biondi-Odo

8. Epel Kapinias

9. Edwin Ipape

10. Luca Moretti

11. Rhyse Martin (c)

12. Nixon Putt

13. Liam Horne

Interchange: Finley Glare, Jacob Taulani, Robert Mathias, Sanny Wabo, Valentine Richard, Zev John.

Reserves: Morea Morea, Rodrick Tai, Alex Max.

England have made two major changes to their starting side. Jez Litten replaces Brad O'Neill at hooker, while Morgan Knowles returns at lock after missing the opening two games with a calf injury. Victor Radley moves to the interchange.

PNG have reshuffled their backline, with Zac Laybutt moving to fullback and Josh Feledy and Nene Macdonald coming into the centres. Morea Morea and Rodrick Tai make way from the starting side. Luca Moretti returns at prop, while Liam Horne replaces Jack de Belin at lock, with de Belin sidelined by a rib injury.

England need a strong performance and a convincing winning margin to strengthen their finals chances.

NEW ZEALAND v FIJI

Saturday, October 31 – Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Tip: New Zealand by 13+

New Zealand face a dangerous Fiji side with a semi-final place on the line. The Kiwis have named Dane Gagai in the centres and Moses Leota at prop, while Fiji have made changes to their interchange and extended squad.

Fiji were very impressive especially in the first half against Australia, but New Zealand should have far too many points in them for Fiji to compete over 80 minutes. If Fiji continue to bring aggression and nice combination passing this game could be a surprise.

New Zealand team list

1. Keano Kini

2. Jamayne Isaako

3. Dane Gagai

4. Casey McLean

5. Ronaldo Mulitalo

6. Kodi Nikorima

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. James Fisher-Harris (c)

9. Jeremy Marshall-King

10. Moses Leota

11. Isaiah Papali'i

12. Briton Nikora

13. Joseph Tapine

Interchange: Te Maire Martin, Naufahu Whyte, Erin Clark, Xavier Willison, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Scott Sorensen.

Reserves: Leo Thompson, Jacob Laban, Tanner Stowers-Smith.

Fiji team list

1. Sunia Turuva

2. Ronald Philitoga

3. Waqa Blake

4. Solomone Saukuru

5. Semi Valemei

6. Kurt Donoghoe

7. Brandon Wakeham

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Apisai Koroisau (c)

10. Emosi Ravosai

11. Taane Milne

12. Kitione Kautoga

13. Caleb Navale

Interchange: Josese Lanyon, Elijah Keung, Jordan Miller, Joseph Litidamu, Jordin Leiu, Apenisa Driti.

Reserves: Zion Johnson, Bayleigh Bentley-Hape, Kylan Mafoa.

New Zealand bring Dane Gagai into the starting side at centre and Moses Leota into the front row. Naufahu Whyte also joins the interchange.

Fiji have included Jordan Miller, Joseph Litidamu and Kylan Mafoa in their updated squad, while Mitchell Prest drops out.

New Zealand must win to secure their semi-final position, while Fiji can move into second place in the group with victory.

AUSTRALIA v COOK ISLANDS

Saturday, October 31 – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Tip: Australia by 13+

Australia are already guaranteed a semi-final spot, but the defending champions will want to finish the group stage strongly against the Cook Islands.

The Kangaroos have made several changes, with Reece Walsh returning at fullback, Cameron Munster coming into the halves and Harry Grant back at hooker.

Every side for the Kangaroos has looked very different in the group stage so I am very intrigued what the finals lineup will look like. But anything but a 13+ Australia win would be a big shock.

Australia team list

1. Reece Walsh

2. Jack Bostock

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Bradman Best

5. Tom Trbojevic

6. Cameron Munster

7. Tom Dearden

8. Patrick Carrigan

9. Harry Grant

10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui

11. Jacob Preston

12. Liam Martin

13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange: Ethan Strange, Keaon Koloamatangi, Cameron Murray, Reuben Cotter, Lindsay Smith, James Tedesco.

Reserves: Sam Walker, Latrell Mitchell, David Fifita.

Cook Islands team list

1. Valentine Holmes

2. Paul Ulberg

3. KL Iro

4. Reubenn Rennie

5. Cameron Brown

6. Maui Winitana-Patelesio

7. Brad Takairangi

8. Davvy Moale

9. Rua Ngatikaura

10. Rhys Dakin

11. Amare Milford

12. Delahia Wigmore

13. Mason Teague

Interchange: Esan Marsters, K-CI Newton-Whare, Makahesi Makatoa, David Tuariki, Chaev Kolone, Glassie Glassie.

Reserves: Brody Tamarua, Pride Petterson-Robati, Reuben Porter.

Australia welcome Reece Walsh, Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin and Cameron Munster back into the side. Tom Dearden partners Munster in the halves, while Sam Walker drops to the reserves.

Pat Carrigan and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui return to the starting front row, Harry Grant resumes at hooker and James Tedesco moves to the interchange. Ethan Strange is named on the bench for his Test debut.

The Cook Islands bring Paul Ulberg back onto the wing for Esom Ioka, who was injured after scoring a hat-trick in the previous match.

Australia have already beaten New Zealand and Fiji, securing top spot in Group A regardless of the result.

LEBANON v FRANCE

Sunday, November 1 – CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Tip: Lebanon by 13+

Lebanon and France meet in a match that will determine which side finishes its World Cup campaign with a win. Neither team can qualify for the semi-finals, but there is still plenty to play for.

Lebanon have named Joseph Nohra at five-eighth and Moustafa Dirani at hooker, while France have been forced into changes following a shoulder injury to Latrell Siegwalt.

This game overall is irrelevant, but Lebanon played quite well despite their round 2 loss 36-0 against Tonga. That result was very harsh on them, and they should easily beat this France side who have been shocking.

Lebanon team list

1. Jacob Kiraz

2. Tony Francis

3. Michael Gabrael

4. Jordan Samrani

5. Jason Saab

6. Joseph Nohra

7. Alex Conti

8. Jaxson Rahme

9. Moustafa Dirani

10. James Roumanos

11. Tony Sukkar

12. Abbas Miski

13. Alex Twal

Interchange: Yehya Ayache, Tupou Francis, Jalal Bazzaz, Khalil Rahme, Shadi Hammoud, Mikael Ibrahim.

Reserves: Ibrahim El Labban, Cameron Kanaan, Mohamed Alameddine.

France team list

1. Arthur Mourgue

2. Leo Darrelatour

3. Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet

4. Romeo Tropis

5. Benjamin Laguerre

6. Cesar Rouge

7. Thomas Lacans

8. Romain Navarrete

9. Alrix Da Costa

10. Julian Bousquet

11. Mathieu Cozza

12. Mathieu Jussaume

13. Benjamin Garcia (c)

Interchange: Amir Bourouh, Lambert Belmas, Jordan Dezaria, Jowasa Drodrolagi, Theo Fages, Fouad Yaha.

Reserves: Tiaki Chan, Louis Grossemy, Arthur Romano.

Lebanon have moved Joseph Nohra into the No.6 jersey and named Moustafa Dirani at hooker. Jalal Bazzaz returns to the interchange, joined by new faces Yehya Ayache and Shadi Hammoud.

France lose centre Latrell Siegwalt to a shoulder injury, with Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet moving into the starting side and Leo Darrelatour coming onto the wing. Fouad Yaha drops to the interchange.

Cesar Rouge starts at five-eighth, Thomas Lacans moves to halfback and Theo Fages goes to the bench. Alrix Da Costa is the new hooker, while Mathieu Cozza starts in the back row.

Lebanon will be looking to finish the tournament with a win after a difficult group stage.

TONGA v SAMOA

Sunday, November 1 – CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Tip: Samoa by 1-12

The biggest match of the round, and arguably the biggest of the tournament sees Tonga take on Samoa in a clash that could determine the final semi-final positions.

Tonga welcome back Isaiya Katoa, who returns from an ankle injury, while Samoa have retained their starting side and added Jazz Tevaga to the interchange.

This really is anyones game, and should be an all-time classic. Both sides are very even, but with Foketi forced to play hooker for Tonga, and the bench variety and depth of Samoa, I see them winning an incredibly close contest.

Tonga team list

1. Lehi Hopoate

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Tolutau Koula

4. Robert Toia

5. Jojo Fifita

6. Tuimoala Lolohea

7. Isaiya Katoa

8. Addin Fonua-Blake

9. Salesi Foketi

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. Haumole Olakau'atu

12. Siua Wong

13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange: Soni Luke, Stefano Utoikamanu, Demitric Vaimauga, Taniela Paseka, Leka Halasima, Latu Fainu.

Reserves: Paul Alamoti, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Sione Katoa.

Samoa team list

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

2. Brian To'o

3. Izack Tago

4. Stephen Crichton

5. Sualauvi Fa'alogo

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Jarome Luai (c)

8. Francis Molo

9. Benaiah Ioelu

10. Junior Paulo

11. Connelly Lemuelu

12. Jermaine McEwen

13. Francis Manuleleua

Interchange: Jazz Tevaga, Spencer Leniu, Shawn Blore, Ata Mariota, Clayton Faulalo, Ronald Volkman.

Reserves: Pasami Saulo, Enari Tuala, Deine Mariner.

Tonga welcome Isaiya Katoa back at halfback, pushing Tuimoala Lolohea to five-eighth and Latu Fainu to the interchange.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Robert Toia return to the starting side, while Tyson Frizell comes back at lock. Jason Taumalolo moves into the front row and Stefano Utoikamanu shifts to the interchange. Siua Wong also returns to the starting side.

Samoa have made no changes to their starting XIII. Jazz Tevaga returns to the interchange after missing the PNG match, while Deine Mariner remains among the reserves as he works his way back from a hamstring injury.

Samoa's attacking firepower makes them a dangerous opponent, but Tonga have enough quality to keep the contest close. My tip is Samoa by 1-12.

ALL FINALS SCENARIOS AFTER ROUND 3

The top two teams from Group A and the combined Groups B and C qualify for the semi-finals.

Group A: Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and Cook Islands

Australia: Already guaranteed a semi-final place and top spot in Group A.

New Zealand: A win over Fiji secures qualification. A loss would allow Fiji to jump ahead and claim the second spot.

Fiji: Must beat New Zealand to move into second place and qualify for the semi-finals.

Cook Islands: Eliminated from semi-final contention, regardless of the result against Australia.

Groups B and C: Samoa, Tonga, England, PNG, Lebanon and France

The current standings heading into Round 3 are:

1. Samoa – 4 points, +132 points differential

2. Tonga – 4 points, +54

3. England – 2 points, +64

4. Papua New Guinea – 2 points, -34

5. Lebanon – 0 points, -60

6. France – 0 points, -156

Lebanon and France are eliminated from semi-final contention.

Samoa: A win over Tonga guarantees qualification and top spot in the combined group.

Tonga: A win over Samoa guarantees qualification. A loss could leave the door open for England to jump ahead on points differential.

England: Must beat PNG and rely on the result of Tonga v Samoa. A convincing win could be crucial to finishing above Tonga if the teams end level on competition points.

Papua New Guinea: Must beat England and would also need a significant improvement in points differential, alongside a favourable Tonga-Samoa result, to remain in contention.

So what happens under my tips?

If my five tips all land, the likely semi-final picture becomes:

- Australia finish first in Group A.

- New Zealand finish second in Group A after beating Fiji.

- Samoa beat Tonga and finish top of the combined group.

- England beat PNG by 13+ and move to four competition points.

- Tonga finish on four points after losing to Samoa.

That would leave England and Tonga level on competition points, with the final placing determined by the tournament's tie-break rules and final points differential. England's winning margin and Samoa's margin of victory would be important in determining who finishes second.