NRL Round 25 Expert Tips

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With just three rounds remaining in the 2026 NRL regular season, Round 25 arrives with plenty on the line. The finals race is coming down to the wire, with teams battling for top-four positions, while others are fighting to keep their seasons alive.

This week's schedule features several huge matchups, including a blockbuster between the Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers, while the Raiders host a Broncos side in Josh Papalii's final home game.

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
Tip: Panthers 1-12

This is arguably the match of the round, with the Storm playing for pride, and the Panthers playing to regain their form. The Storm will have home advantage at AAMI Park, but I am backing Penrith to come away with a narrow victory.

The Panthers remain one of the competition's benchmark sides despite recent losses, and have the defensive structure and big-game experience required to handle Melbourne. Nathan Cleary will also be crucial in controlling the contest and keeping Penrith composed when the Storm inevitably apply pressure.

Melbourne have plenty of firepower and are more than capable of winning this one, but I am expecting a tight contest that could come down to the final whistle.

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos
Tip: Raiders 13+

I am backing the Raiders to make a statement at home against Brisbane for departing legend Josh Papalii.

Both sides are now out of the finals, so there's no real pressure to win this game for either side other than for pride.

The Raiders' defensive intensity and ability to build pressure should eventually prove too much for the Broncos. Canberra also have plenty of attacking weapons capable of turning pressure into points, and their side should galvanise in honour of their departing man.

Dolphins vs Parramatta Eels
Tip: Dolphins 13+

The Dolphins have already secured their first-ever finals appearance and will be looking to build momentum heading into September.

Isaiya Katoa and the Dolphins' emerging spine have developed throughout the season, while their combination of youth and experienced players has made them one of the competition's most dangerous sides.

Parramatta are capable of causing problems, but the Dolphins' recent form and confidence make them difficult to oppose. At home, I am expecting the Dolphins to control the match and eventually pull away.

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles
Tip: Knights 13+

The Knights are one of the teams to be keeping a close eye on heading into the finals.

Newcastle have won three straight games and Kalyn Ponga is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. That combination has given the Knights genuine attacking threat and made them a difficult team to contain.

Manly will receive a major boost with Tom Trbojevic returning, but the Sea Eagles are still fighting for their season and have struggled for consistency.

With their recent form, I am expecting Newcastle to dominate territory and possession before pulling away in the second half.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors
Tip: Warriors 1-12

This is a fascinating clash between two teams with plenty at stake.

South Sydney have been fighting to hold onto a finals position, while the Warriors have surged into the business end of the season with genuine top-four ambitions.

The Rabbitohs have the attacking talent to make this extremely difficult for New Zealand, particularly if Latrell Mitchell returns. Mitchell has been named in the extended squad and could provide a huge boost if he takes the field.

However, I am siding with the Warriors to produce another disciplined performance. They are unlikely to run away with it in what could be a game that could go either way, but their defensive resilience should be enough to secure a narrow victory.

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Tip: Bulldogs 1-12

The Bulldogs haven't been as consistent as they would have liked in recent weeks, but they remain a side capable of producing excellent defensive performances, and are still in the hunt for finals football.

Canterbury's ability to control possession and pressure their opponents through repeated sets should be particularly important against the Dragons. The Bulldogs also have plenty of attacking quality capable of exploiting mistakes.

I am expecting St George Illawarra to stay competitive after they finally won consecutive games, but Canterbury should have enough to get the job done.

Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks
Tip: Sharks 1-12

The Sharks are coming off a difficult period but remain one of the more dangerous sides in the competition.

Cronulla's season has been built around their ability to dominate through their forward pack and create opportunities for Nicho Hynes, Braydon Trindall, and their outside backs. However, recent losses have raised questions about their consistency heading into the finals, and their best player in Trindall is now out injured after dislocating his shoulder last week.

The Titans are capable of making this uncomfortable particularly at home. This game could really go either way despite the Sharks being big favourites to win.

Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers
Tip: Roosters 13+

The Roosters is pick to finish Round 25 with a comfortable victory. They are good and the Tigers suck and it's as simple as that.

Sydney have surged to the top of the ladder after five consecutive wins and are playing some of their best football at exactly the right time of the season.

The return of James Tedesco is another major boost, while the Roosters' spine is beginning to click at the perfect time. The Tigers, meanwhile, continue to deal with injury problems, including the loss of Adam Doueihi for the remainder of the season.

If the Roosters start quickly, this could become a long afternoon for the Tigers.