NRL Finals Week 1: Expert Tips and Predictions for Every Match

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The 2026 NRL finals series is here, with four massive matches set to decide who keeps their premiership hopes alive and who sees their season come to an end.

From elimination finals between the Rabbitohs and Knights and Sharks and Cowboys, to qualifying finals featuring the Warriors, Dolphins, Panthers and Roosters, there is plenty on the line in Week 1.

Here are my expert tips and predictions for every match.

Rabbitohs vs Knights
Tip: Rabbitohs 1-12

The finals series gets underway with what should be a tightly contested elimination final between South Sydney and Newcastle.

The Rabbitohs head into the match with some important changes, most notably losing back-rower Euan Aitken for the remainder of the season after he fractured his scapula against the Roosters. South Sydney have received some positive news elsewhere, however, with Tallis Duncan returning and the side looking to build on its strong finish to the regular season.

Newcastle also have some major personnel concerns. The Knights have dealt with injuries and suspensions in recent weeks, with key forwards Trey Mooney and Jacob Saifiti unavailable, although the team has received some important returns for the finals with Dominic Young, Tyson Frizell, and Phoenix Crossland back in the side.

The Rabbitohs have the advantage of playing at Allianz Stadium and appear to have slightly more momentum heading into the finals. Newcastle have enough talent to make this uncomfortable, however, and I expect them to stay in the contest for most of the night. This should be a really tight game.

Warriors vs Dolphins
Tip: Warriors 1-12

This is one of the most intriguing games of the opening weekend, with the Warriors hosting the Dolphins in a massive qualifying final.

The Warriors narrowly missed out on the minor premiership and have been boosted by the return of Jackson Ford after a lengthy injury absence as well as Leka Halasima. The home side's forward depth could be particularly important, although there are still injury questions around several players heading into the finals.

The Dolphins are playing finals football and have also welcomed back several important players, including Selwyn Cobbo and Kodi Nikorima. They have shown throughout the season that they are capable of beating anyone when their attacking game clicks.

However, Go Media Stadium should be absolutely rocking for this one. The Warriors have been one of the competition's strongest sides throughout the season and the home-ground advantage could prove decisive.

I don't expect the Dolphins to go away easily, particularly with their attacking weapons, but the Warriors should have enough to survive a huge contest and book their place in Week 2.

Sharks vs Cowboys
Tip: Sharks 1-12

Cronulla and North Queensland meet in an elimination final that could easily go either way in a battle between the two most inconsistent good teams in the comp.

The Sharks have received a huge boost for the finals, with Braydon Trindall returning from a shoulder injury. Nicho Hynes, KL Iro, Blayke Brailey and Teig Wilton also return after being rested, giving Cronulla a significantly stronger side than the one that lost to Melbourne in Round 27.

North Queensland have their own important inclusions, with Zac Laybutt and Griffin Neame back in the picture, while Jeremiah Nanai has been named despite a knee concern. Captain Reuben Cotter's availability has also been a major talking point heading into the weekend.

The Cowboys are more than capable of causing an upset and Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater give them plenty of attacking danger. However, Cronulla's returning players, particularly the reunion of Trindall and Hynes in the halves, make them difficult to oppose.

Expect a physical and close contest, but the Sharks should find a way through at Allianz Stadium with Trindall back. He is the key.

Panthers vs Roosters
Tip: Panthers 13+

The final game of Week 1 sees the minor premiers take on the Roosters in a huge Sydney derby.

Penrith have received a major boost with captain Isaah Yeo returning for the finals after injury, giving the Panthers one of their most important leaders back at exactly the right time.

The Roosters have also welcomed back several key players after resting stars in the final round, including major names returning to strengthen their finals lineup. However, they remain without halfback Sam Walker following ankle surgery, a huge loss at the most important time of the season.

The Roosters certainly have enough quality to make this a competitive game, especially if their returning players hit the ground running. But Penrith finished the regular season as minor premiers and will be playing with the confidence of a side that knows how to handle finals football.

With Yeo returning to add further experience and leadership, I expect the Panthers to take control and secure a comfortable victory.