Full State of Origin Decider Preview!

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QLD v NSW - Wednesday July 8, Kickoff at 8:10 AEST, Suncorp Stadium.

The State of Origin decider for 2026 is just 24 hours away. QLD embarrassed NSW in game 2 in the second half, after a calamitous effort from Laurie Daley's side.

QLD are at home, off a big win, and have minimal changes to their side, and find themselves significant favourites to win the series for a fourth time in five years. The only changes for QLD is a return to the side for both Pat Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai, who both are set to play off the bench.

QLD will play fearless and front foot footy. Kicking early in the tackle count, rushing defence, early shifts of the footy. QLD have got the style right in recent years to win several series.

QLD will look to target shifts more in this game through the hands rather than kicking into the corners. NSW have made an attempt to nullify that by adding in Jack Bostock, who is far more comfortable under the high ball than Brian To'o.

But with Bostock playing in the centres since his return, and losing a bit of pace post ACL, and with Mark Nawaqanitawase's fragility in defence often exposed, QLD will look to get the ball wide to Jojo Fifita and Selwyn Cobbo as much as possible.

Both players scored in game two, Cobbo bagging a hattrick. Harry Grant will again try to expose lazy defenders around the ruck, with Sam Walker and Cameron Munster likely to get the ball in their hands as much as possible.

For NSW, those corner kicks have changed the dynamic of the side, with Bostock coming in for his debut on the wing to get under the high balls. Stephen Crichton and Bradman Best are back together in the centres, their physicality should suit this type of game nicely.

Liam Martin and Haumole Olakua'atu are back for NSW in the second row. Both guys are perfectly suited for Origin and can provide great effort on both sides of the field, and could prove the difference.

A welcome return for NSW is Sharks hooker Blayke Brailey. With Laurie Daley's poor management of Api Koroisau in game 2, this could be the key player for NSW. When he is injected into the game is vital to getting a series win. His debut in game 1 was excellent with his quick speed out of dummy half around the ruck, and his elite ability to read the game.

In a nutshell, QLD are at home, off a big win, and are a more settled side, with NSW being poorly managed tactically by Laurie Daley, but have some key players on the field that if utilised correctly, can easily get a win here despite the underdog status for this game.

Final Prediction is QLD 13+. The factors in their favour, and the poor coaching and selections thus far from Laurie Daley should be the difference. Don't count out NSW, but Daley needs to be more brave and get his side to play front foot footy like QLD often do.