Why Japan Could Become The First Asian Nation To Win The World Cup

Photo: Julio Cesar Aguilar/AFP/Getty Images)

In my pre World Cup predictions, Japan was my number 1 dark horse side. Their win today further reinforces why they can do the unthinkable.

Japan has continued their impressive World Cup campaign with a commanding 4-0 victory over Tunisia, further strengthening the belief that Hajime Moriyasu's side can make a deep run in the tournament.

While traditional favourites such as Brazil, France, Germany and Argentina continue to attract most of the attention, Japan are quietly building one of the most complete resumes in the competition.

The Samurai Blue have combined tactical discipline, technical quality and squad depth to emerge as one of the tournament's most dangerous teams.

One of Japan's greatest strengths is their flexibility and two-way balance in and out of possession.

Moriyasu frequently switches between a 4-2-3-1 and a 3-4-2-1 depending on the opponent, allowing Japan to remain compact without sacrificing attacking threat.

Against Tunisia, Japan's pressing structure repeatedly forced turnovers in advanced areas, while their midfield controlled possession and prevented Tunisia from building attacks through the centre; whilst simultaneously making key incisive, cutting central passes in attack.

Unlike many international sides that rely heavily on individual brilliance, Japan function as a collective unit.

Every player understands their role both in and out of possession, making them one of the hardest teams in the tournament to break down. We have seen recently in football that teams without a superstar function way better when the teams well rounded. For example, PSG failing to win a UCL with Neymar, Mbappe, and Messi, but when they have top players but with less ego, back to back titles.

Japan's current squad is arguably the strongest in the nation's history.

Takefusa Kubo
Kaoru Mitoma
Wataru Endo
Ritsu Doan
Ao Tanaka
Zion Suzuki

The list goes on.

If you look at their squad, so many play at a high level in Europe.

The result is a squad capable of matching the technical quality of football's traditional powerhouses while maintaining the work rate and organisation that has long defined Japanese football.

Several Asian nations have enjoyed memorable World Cup runs.

South Korea reached the semi-finals in 2002, while Japan have reached the Round of 16 on multiple occasions.

However, this Japanese side appears more balanced than any Asian team before it.

Previous Asian contenders often relied on home advantage, defensive resilience or a handful of standout players.

Those factors make them genuine contenders rather than simply a dangerous underdog.

If Japan win their group, they could potentially avoid several traditional heavyweights in the early knockout rounds.

A possible pathway may include:

Round of 32

A runner-up from another group rather than a tournament favourite.

Round of 16

A clash with a second-tier European or South American nation.

Quarter-Final

Their first major test against one of the world's elite sides.

Semi-Final

Potentially Germany, France, Brazil or Argentina.

While the route would still be extremely difficult, Japan's chances improve significantly if they can secure top spot in their group and avoid an early meeting with one of the tournament favourites.

The question is no longer whether Japan can compete with the world's best.

Recent victories over Germany, Spain and other elite nations have already answered that. The challenge now is maintaining that level over seven matches.

Winning a World Cup requires consistency, depth and the ability to handle immense pressure.

Japan have shown they possess all three.

Can They Make History?

No Asian nation has ever won the FIFA World Cup. But if any team is capable of breaking that barrier, this may be the one.

Disciplined, technically gifted and tactically sophisticated, Japan are beginning to look less like a dark horse and more like a genuine contender for football's biggest prize.

Japan's rise is no longer being discussed solely by supporters and pundits in Asia.

Some of the most respected figures in football have spent years praising the development of Japanese football and the national team's evolution.

Former Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger, who managed in Japan before his move to Europe, has repeatedly spoken about the country's footballing progress. Wenger previously described Japanese football as being at a "world-class level" and praised the quality of the nation's youth development system.

Former Manchester United manager Alex Ferguson has long praised the quality of football in Japan through his experiences against Japanese opposition, while numerous former Premier League players have highlighted the technical level and professionalism consistently produced by the country's football system.

What was once considered an emerging football nation is now producing players who are starring in the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A on a regular basis.

The respect Japan receives from football's most influential figures is no longer based on potential. It is based on results.

So why does 2026 feel Different? Japan have reached the point where victories over elite nations are no longer considered big shocks.

Germany, Spain and other traditional powerhouses have already discovered that firsthand in recent years.

No Asian nation has ever lifted the FIFA World Cup.

But for the first time, it feels like the conversation is no longer whether an Asian nation can win it.

It's whether this Japanese generation can be the one to finally do it.